First, we want to apologize if you missed the last three weeks worth of newsletters, we had a technical error that caused our newsletter to go to your spam inbox. In this week's newsletter, we'll be taking a closer look at exploring the potential for a soft landing and the rise of META stock in greater detail. We'll also be providing you with actionable insights and tips from the week. Also, next week we will be announcing something new from Cents Invest!

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Soft Landing

We recently got BLS data and without burying the lead here we can look no further than adjustments made by the census beurus data which adjust the data series to account for newly discovered members of our population. These newly discovered people are assumed to be employed if they fall under the working age population. It will take time to correct but for now it's having its affect.

So what we see is the adjustment was added to this figure which skewed the numbers in favor of a positive outlook. Removing these adjustments we see the trend of recession is still in tact. March- May of last year was peak inflationary pressure via necessity goods having their strongest impact putting pressure on consumers.

The adjustment also affected weekly hours worked, destroying the trend. Okay could it have been that said trend has changed? Unlikely at that veracity. After covering the bank earnings the other week I will remind readers banks outlook is now for recession in second half of 2023. However this is still a "mild" recession consensus.

To read how this affects this years outlook for stocks and bonds click here.

META

META, the company that recovered with the same ferocity as it fell. This company has at the very least proven to everyone how bad the sentiment can get for a company and where narratives might pile on and take a life of their own. Don't believe me? Search Meta stock videos in November 2022. Yeah, that's what I'm talking about. Meta's business performance was more or less the same with previous quarters performance. It's nothing out of the ordinary. What has changed now is how people feel about META. We find META to be now at fair value to slightly undervalued. If you had accumulated during the recent lows, the recent run up might be a moment to capture some of those gains if you are taking into account the tax consequences.

To read more about our META research click here.

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